Does childhood matter for how we vote?: Pathways from early development to adult political outcomes

• In Event: Measurement and consequences of childhood self regulation and self control

Abstract

Research in adults has identified personality, economic, and demographic factors that contribute to political identity (e.g., Sibley et al., 2012). Yet less is known about the developmental origins of political attitudes and behavior in early ontogeny. The NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (SECCYD, N= 1,364) provides a unique lens to better understand the developmental pathways that contribute to political outcomes. Building on previous work with this dataset (Fraley et al., 2012; Wegemer & Vandell, 2020), we hypothesized that maternal sensitivity and temperament in early development (assessed at ages 6-54 months) would predict adolescent social skills at age 15, which in turn would contribute to long-term political outcomes in two key domains: voting behavior and engagement in political activities at age 26.

Two path models were performed in MPlus, using FIML and controlling for the following a priori covariates: geographic location, participant sex, race/ethnicity, maternal education, income-to-needs ratio, and cognitive ability at 54m.

In Model 1, maternal sensitivity (observed in the home from 6-54 months) and inhibitory control (parent-reported on the Children’s Behavior Questionnaire at 54 months) were entered as predictors, adolescent cooperation and self-control (parent-reported on the Social Skills Rating System at age 15) as mediators, and political behavior (self-reported voting and political engagement at age 26) as outcomes. Controlling for covariates, maternal sensitivity positively predicted adolescent self-control (b= .77, p< .001) and cooperation (b= .43, p= .020); similarly, early childhood inhibitory control predicted greater adolescent self-control (b= 1.07, p< .001) and cooperation (b= .89, p< .001); in turn, adolescent self-control positively predicted engagement in political activities in adulthood, (b= .02, p= .042). When testing indirect effects, only the indirect path from early childhood temperament to adult political engagement via adolescent self-control was significant (b= .03, p= .027). No significant paths emerged predicting adult voting behavior.

In Model 2, observed maternal sensitivity, fearful temperament, and their interaction term were entered as predictors, adolescent autonomy (parent-reported on the Parental Control and Autonomy scale at age 15) as a mediator, and political attitudes (self-reported liberalism-vs.-conservatism at age 26) as the outcome. Neither maternal sensitivity nor fearful temperament predicted adolescent autonomy. However, lower adolescent autonomy predicted more conservative political attitudes at age 26 (b= -.06, p< .001); further, there was a significant direct effect of fearful temperament on adult conservatism, even after accounting for adolescent autonomy, b=.17, p= .008. The interaction of maternal sensitivity with fearful temperament in infancy did not significantly predict adolescent autonomy (p= .081), neither did it predict adult conservatism (p= .112); thus, we did not find evidence for differential susceptibility in the development of political attitudes.

Results reveal two major findings: (1) maternal sensitivity and inhibitory control in early childhood contribute to greater adult political engagement via increased adolescent self-control; and (2) fearful temperament in early childhood may contribute to adult conservative political attitudes via decreased adolescent autonomy. Findings shed light on the long-term developmental pathways underlying political identity and behavior, with important implications for understanding the roots of political differences in our society.

Authors

• Jessica A Stern, University of Virginia - Charlottesville
  Presenting Author

• Christopher M. Wegemer, University of California, Los Angeles

• Tobias Grossmann, University of Virginia - Charlottesville

• Deborah Lowe Vandell, University of California - Irvine