Early Emergence of Reasoning About Multiple, Mutually Exclusive Possible Events and Objects

• In Event: The Development of Future-Thinking Across Childhood

Abstract

The ability to consider multiple, mutually exclusive possibilities simultaneously is crucial for planning and decision-making. Previous research has suggested that this ability emerges around age 4 based on children’s performance in the “tube task” (e.g. Redshaw & Suddendorf, 2016): when children are asked to catch a ball that is dropped into an inverted y-shaped tube – such that the ball could come out of one or the other opening, but not both – 3-year-olds place their hands only under one opening, catching the ball on half of trials, whereas 4-year-olds correctly cover both openings, guaranteeing the catch (Redshaw & Suddendorf, 2016). In two experiments, we investigated whether 3-year-olds show early competence at reasoning about multiple, mutually exclusive possibilities under different task conditions.

In Experiment 1 (see Figure 1), we asked whether 3-year-olds’ failure in the “tube task” was due to difficulty reasoning about multiple, mutually exclusive possibilities, or due to difficulty planning the correct actions to act on these possibilities. In a Control condition, 3- and 4-year-olds (N=49, M=43.1 months and M=54.0 months) were simply asked to catch the marble, replicating Redshaw and Suddendorf (2016). In an Intervention condition (N=49, M=43.7 months and M=54.4 months), 3- and 4-year-olds first watched videos of two adult actors who each used different strategies to catch the marble from the tube: one actor placed their hands under both openings (optimal strategy), while the other placed their hands under only one opening (suboptimal strategy) (both actors caught the marble). Then, children were asked to catch the marble themselves. Children’s behavior in the Control condition replicated Redshaw & Suddendorf (2016): 3-year-olds used a one-side strategy, while 4-year-olds covered both sides (3-year-olds vs. 4-year-olds p <.001, Figure 1). However, in the Intervention condition, both groups covered both sides the majority of the time, and there was no difference between 3- and 4-year-olds performance (p=.76, Figure 1). These findings suggest seeing the potential actions beforehand helped younger children plan the correct action themselves, revealing underlying competence at reasoning about multiple, mutually exclusive possibilities.

In Experiment 2, we asked whether 3-year-olds can reason about multiple, mutually exclusive object identities (Figure 2). We first showed children two animals and paired them with their favorite foods (e.g., monkey likes bananas, bunny likes carrots). We told children that both animals wanted to slide down a tube-slide, but only one could slide down at a time and we don’t know who will slide first. We then asked children to get a snack ready for whoever slides down. Children could select one food (e.g., carrot OR banana – suboptimal strategy), or both foods (optimal strategy). Both 3- or 4-year-olds chose both snacks at rates significantly above chance (both p<.001, Figure 2), with no difference between 3- and 4-year-olds' (p=.73), suggesting successful reasoning about mutually exclusive identities, and potentially suggesting that acting on mutually exclusive identities may be easier than acting on mutually exclusive locations (in the Tube task).

Together, these results provide evidence for the early emergence of the representation and preparation for multiple, mutually exclusive future possibilities in 3-year-olds.

Authors

• Esra Nur Turan-Küçük, Boston University
  Presenting Author

• Melissa M. Kibbe, Boston University