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Current theoretical models suggest that caregiver unpredictability is a crucial feature of early adversity, shaping neurodevelopmental processes that disrupt self-regulation and increase the risk for mental health problems (Ellis et al., 2022). However, empirical evaluation of these theoretical models is limited. Pioneering work has investigated how unpredictable patterns of caregiver sensory signals during infancy shape critical emotional and cognitive circuitry underlying self-regulation (Davis et al., 2017). Specifically, unpredictability undermines the development of executive functions, which may increase vulnerability for subsequent psychopathology (Davis et al., 2019). Thus far, this observational approach to sensory signal unpredictability has only been developed and validated for infants during a free play paradigm. Whether these associations continue after infancy and differ based on interaction context are open questions.
Self-regulation is a multi-faceted construct, including aspects of cognitive and physiological regulation (Barret et al., 2013). Therefore, we examined whether caregiver unpredictability during free play and a learning task (puzzle) contributed to the development of inhibitory control, parasympathetic activity, and psychological adjustment (externalizing and internalizing problems) across the transition from preschool (Mage =4.61, SD =0.28) to primary school (Mage =6.57, SD =0.30) in a sample of 98 children (49 girls) at risk for externalizing problems.
At age 4, unpredictability of caregiver sensory signals was quantified using the entropy rate of a sequence of auditory, visual, and tactile signals derived from a play interaction and a puzzle task, each lasting five minutes. At ages 4 and 6, children completed the Day-Night task to assess inhibitory control (Gerstadt et al. 1994). During the task, cardiac activity was measured, and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was derived as an index of parasympathetic activity. Also at both ages, mothers reported on externalizing and interalizing problems using the Child Behavioral Checklist (Achenbach & Rescorla, 2000).
Using path models, we found that caregiver unpredictability during puzzle was concurrently associated with lower inhibitory control, and unpredictability during free play was prospectively associated with lower RSA reactivity (more suppression) to the Day-Night task (see Figures). These associations persisted after adjusting for maternal permissiveness and warmth during a clean-up task and family socioeconomic status. Although lower RSA reactivity (more suppression) at age 6 and inhibitory control at age 4 were associated with higher internalizing (r =-0.23, p =.050) and externalizing problems (r =-0.26, p =.018), respectively, unpredictability did not predict mother-reported problems.
The association between unpredictable sequences of maternal sensory signals and physiological and behavioral aspects of self-regulation differed depending on timing and the nature of the task. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that unpredictable patterns of sensory signals during early childhood predict multiple aspects of self-regulation. The differences across tasks in relations between unpredictability and facets of self-regulation suggest differential child learning across distinct socialization contexts, which in turn have implications for children’s psychological adjustment. Thus, these findings may reveal mechanisms by which maternal unpredictability continues to adversely affect child well-being beyond infancy.