Does attending pre-K or Head Start predict high school graduation?

• In Event: Do pre-K gains persist? Evidence from four pre-K programs

Abstract

Approximately 3.6 million students graduate from high school each year. High school graduation can be affected by a variety of factors, including individual, family, school, peer, and community contexts (Zaff, et al., 2017). Schools have implemented a variety of mechanisms to promote graduation, both directly in support of graduating on time, such as credit recovery, along with programs and services that support graduation more indirectly. Participating in high-quality pre-K, with demonstrated links to favorable outcomes through high school (Amadon, et al., 2022), may also promote graduation. Studies have found favorable associations of ECE programs with high school graduation, but much of this research was conducted on the first generation of programs, when families had fewer ECE options and programs were targeted toward those identified as most in need. Accordingly, we address the question of whether participation in a high-quality, universal pre-K program can improve high school graduation rates. The present study builds upon this literature to examine the impacts of a universal school-based pre-K program and a Head Start program in Tulsa, OK, focusing on high school graduation.
We followed a sample of 2,516 students from their pre-K year (2005-06) through high school graduation; the sample is racially and ethnically diverse (33% Black, 23% Hispanic, 10% Native American, 33% White) with 49% female students (see Table 1 for additional descriptive characteristics). We relied on data from the Tulsa Public Schools (TPS), a parent survey administered in 2006, and the Oklahoma State Department of Education. We examined both Head Start and pre-K participation, as defined as having attended at least 50% of the year, which was indicated by TPS administrative data. We defined graduation in three different ways: graduation at any time, graduation on time with the ninth-grade cohort, and graduation on time with the kindergarten cohort. Data from a parent survey and TPS data were used as covariates in statistical models.
We used propensity score weighting to compare pre-K and Head Students (separately) to students who attended neither program. Multiple imputation (with 40 imputed datasets) was used to address missing data on the parent survey. Weighted multiple regression with covariates was used to estimate outcome models.
Attending pre-K was marginally associated with graduation at any point and was significantly associated with kindergarten-cohort on-time high school graduation and marginally associated with high school-cohort on-time graduation. Students who attended TPS pre-K were 8 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school on-time (using kindergarten-cohort graduation) and 2.5 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school at any time. Attending Head Start did not significantly predict high school graduation status of any kind.
The research extends the literature to suggest that pre-K may have enduring impacts to high school and beyond. Findings have implications for pre-K program expansion and future ECE research.

Authors

• Sara Amadon, Child Trends -Maryland
  Presenting Author

• William T. Gormley, Georgetown University

• Douglas Hummel-Price, Georgetown University

• James Fuller, Child Trends