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Substance use disorders (SUDs) are a pressing public health issue. In 2019, 20.4 million individuals aged 12 and older were diagnosed with a SUD (SAMHSA, 2020). The current body of literature provides evidence of well-established predictors of general SUDs, including conduct disorder (CD; Palmer et al., 2013). In contrast, our understanding of substance-specific influences on SUDs is more limited, although there are both general and drug-specific genetic and environmental influences affecting drug use and response (Haberstick et al., 2010). Literature on community samples suggests that subjective effects (SEs; i.e., how an individual perceives their physiological and psychological reactions to a drug) are associated with SUDs, but there is little research on associations between SEs and SUDs in clinical samples. The present, longitudinal study examines SEs in adolescence as potential predictors of SUDs in an ethnically diverse clinical sample, assessed in three waves from adolescence through adulthood by the Center for Antisocial Drug Dependence. The preregistration for these analyses is available at: https://osf.io/mc7w8/?view_only=6daabac7e797496db01743426e5683d0.
We evaluated positive and negative SEs in adolescence as predictors of legal (tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis) and illegal (hallucinogens, amphetamines, cocaine, and opiates) SUDs. After controlling for CD symptoms, we examined whether SEs explained specific versus general SUD in adolescence and adulthood by regressing illegal and legal SUD factors and the residual variance of individual substances on SEs of corresponding substances. Exploratory analyses addressed whether SEs predicted SUD across drug classes, by regressing illegal and legal SUD factors on illegal and legal positive and negative SE factors. We tested whether SEs predicted change in SUD from adolescence to adulthood for each substance after controlling for CD symptoms. Associations were tested for ethnic differences, based on prior research indicating differential predictors of SUD across ethnic groups (Chen & Jacobson, 2012; Romero et al., 2007).
Results were most consistent and robust for individual SEs predicting general legal SUD. Positive and negative SEs for legal substances positively influenced the general legal SUD factor at all waves, although results varied across specific SEs. In contrast, SEs for illegal substances positively predicted the general illegal SUD factor only at Wave 1. SEs predicting the residual variance of specific substances less consistently, and associations were strongest at Wave 1. There was evidence for cross-substance effects: the general positive and negative SE factors for legal substances positively predicted the general legal SUD factor in adolescence and adulthood. Cross-substance effects for illegal SUD were evident only at Wave 1. Contrary to our hypothesis and prior literature, CD symptoms predicted the general legal SUD factor and residual alcohol SUD variance in adolescence, but not in adulthood. CD symptoms predicted the general illegal SUD factor at Waves 1 and 2. There were significant decreases in SUD criteria from adolescence to adulthood for several substances, but neither SEs nor CD symptoms consistently predicted change in SUD. We found no evidence for ethnic differences in associations. These results provide new evidence of independent predictors of SUD from adolescence to adulthood, particularly for legal substances, in a high-risk clinical sample.