Making Texas a Battleground State? The 2014 Gubernatorial Election

• In Event: Political Change and Political Behavior in the South

Abstract

For the better part of a generation, Texas has been reliably Republican at the state and national levels. In the 2014 gubernatorial election, State Senator Wendy Davis was the latest Democratic candidate to attempt to reverse this Republican trend and unlike previous candidates provided the Democrats reason for optimism in this contest. Politically, Davis was a charismatic candidate who attracted national attention during her 2013 filibuster on reproductive rights. Moreover, this was the first Texas gubernatorial election not to feature a Republican incumbent since 1994. Demographically, Texas is changing with Democratically-leaning Latinos being fastest growing ethnic group in the state. Also, there has been a significant migration to Texas by citizens from other states, potentially challenging Republican hegemony. Finally, outside political money and grassroots organizations like Battleground Texas raised millions of dollars and marshalled tens of thousands of volunteers to support competitive Democratic candidates. On the surface, these factors provided the Democrats with optimism not seen in many years.

The importance of this race extended into future elections as well. Under the current political alignment, it is difficult to envision the circumstances where a Republican candidate could achieve a majority in the Electoral College without Texas. A Davis victory would have laid the foundation for a potential Democratic revival in the state, and a potential nightmare scenario for the Republican Party.

Using aggregate election data and survey results, we examine the results of the 2014 governor’s race to examine the latest attempt to turn Texas “blue”. We examine aggregate voting and turnout data to reveal voting patterns in urban and Latino counties which are essential parts of the Battleground Texas strategy. Next, we use multivariate analysis of the election by examining survey data from the 2014 election to understand the demographic, attitudinal, and behavioral factors that influenced vote choice. We conclude by speculating on the implications of this election for Texas and 2016 presidential elections.

Authors

• Brian William Smith, St. Edward's University

• Thomas John Beech, Bemidji State University