Scenarios And Simulations - Methods For Constructing Futures

• In Event: Innovations in Methods and Theory

Abstract

Concerns with futures, anticipation, and attending to how complex sociotechnical and knowledge systems change over time are questions at the core of Science and Technology Studies (STS). There are myriad approaches to thinking about these questions originating from diverse disciplines and STS has been a crucial integrator of methods from these perspectives.
This research will explore two methods for thinking about complex sociotechnical systems futures. The first is scenario analysis, which is employed in STS scholarship extensively. The second method is quantitative modeling and simulation. This approach is more often the objective of critique from STS scholarship than utilized by it. An analysis of these approaches is illustrated with examples from energy systems research. Both scenario analysis and modeling have long, rich histories in the construction of energy futures, fantasies, and imaginaries.
The comparison of the futures imagined by scenarios and models in the energy system highlight an important question central to STS: how are the tools used affecting the kinds of futures produced? Why are the futures arising from each approach different?
Finally, STS methods are transdisciplinary and benefit from the fertile cross-pollination with other disciplines and perspectives. Given this, could a protocol synthesizing scenario approaches and simulation provide an opportunity for improved anticipation of complex sociotechnical systems?

Author

• Joshua Loughman, SFIS - Arizona State University