Domesticating Uncertainty: The “Infection” of the Mathematical Model of Infectious Diseases

• In Event: Modeling Health Futures: Practices of Assuming, Anticipating, and Forecasting - I

Abstract

This study aims to clarify how mathematical models and simulations have been diffused in the socio-technical environment. Predictions based on mathematical modeling have become increasingly influential on public policy in which the legitimacy of models are constructed and scrutinized. Infectious disease, including predictions on the spread of infection, is one of the key issues to which this modeling technique can be applied in governmental interventions. However, there seems to be reluctance to use modeling in Japanese healthcare policy. To clarify the process of circulation of models in the socio-technical environment, this paper used semi-structured interviews with specialties, observations of conferences, and document analyses to examine cases where mathematical modeling was applied to infectious diseases in Japan and Taiwan. Three factors are considered important in the “infection/prevention” of the mathematical model in the public sector. First is the preference of decision-making style, that is, Japanese organizations’ decision-making systems put an emphasis on personal confidence. Second is the material aspect, the maturity of the interface. The interface of the model requires a visualization of the margin of error, in addition to showing the results. This means that the model and prediction will necessarily have errors and uncertainty, so that the use of the information is affected by how of the error is represented. The third is the established infrastructure. The Japanese system has focused more on physical prevention efforts, as an alternative to utilization of mathematical modeling.

Author

• Aiko Hibino, Hirosaki University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences