Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts

• In Event: Analysts and their forecasts

Abstract

Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast and also by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts). Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst decision fatigue.

Authors

• David Hirshleifer, University of California Irvine

• Yaron Levi, University of Southern California

• Ben Lourie, University of California-Irvine

• Siew Hong Teoh, University of California, Irvine