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Detecting Revenue Management

Thu, April 24, 2:00 to 3:40pm, Hilton Salt Lake City Center, TBA

Abstract

This paper gives the first complete consideration that revenues can be manipulated via three accrual accounts: accounts receivable, current deferred revenues, and long-term deferred revenues. Using a cash from sales measure new to the literature, the model posits that “correct” accounts receivable accruals is associated with contemporaneous changes in revenues and future changes in cash from sales, and that “correct” deferred revenue accruals is associated with contemporaneous changes in cash from sales and future changes in revenues. The residuals proxy for revenue management. Compared with extant models of revenue management and aggregate earnings management, my model appears well specified when applied to a random sample of firm-years and generates tests of relatively higher power when applied to samples of seeded revenue management. Lastly, I validate that my revenue management proxy predicts confirmed cases of revenue manipulation identified by SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAERs). This study aims to provide a direct-approach, automated, and more efficient option for identifying suspect firms managing revenues, with implications for SEC regulators.

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