Russia and the Northeast Asian Trio: Can They Make a Quartet?

• In Event: Russia's Engagement in Asia: the Russian Far East and Beyond

Abstract

Even though Russia claims to be a great Asian power with interests all over the Asia-Pacific, its actual stakes are predominantly focused on Northeast Asia, a region comprised, apart from the Russian Far East, by China, Japan, and the Korean Peninsula. Politically, Russia has been part of Northeast Asia’s international system since the second half of the 19th century, being one of the region’s major players. Economically, China, Japan and South Korea account for the bulk of Russia’s trade with the Asia-Pacific. The paper aims to analyze Russia’s relations with Northeast Asia’s big trio – Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul – with each of the three bilateral relationships having its own trajectory and holding special value for Russia. The paper tries to combine realist and liberal-integrationist approaches. From a realist perspective, the paper asks the question if, in the context of the post-Ukraine strategic environment, Russia is destined to become increasingly dependent on China in its Asian policies or it can still aspire to be an independent balancing actor contributing to Northeast Asia’s equilibrium. From a liberal perspective, the paper highlights the region’s continuing movement toward trilateral economic integration of China, Japan and the ROK. Will Russia remain largely excluded from the Northeast Asian evolving regionalism or will it be willing, and able, to join it – and, if so, in what ways?

Author

• Artyom Lukin, Far Eastern Federal University