Japanese Fertility Decline and the Changing Labor Market

• In Event: Changing Dynamics of Marriage, Work, and Family in East Asia

Abstract

Japan’s total fertility rate reached a record low of 1.26 in 2005 and subsequently recovered slightly to 1.42 in 2014, still below the population replacement level. This paper investigates the reasons behind the low fertility rate, focusing on working conditions and especially on the growing disparity between the “haves” and “have-nots” among Japan’s young generation since the labor market deregulation began in 1997. Many scholars and commentators argue that marriage delay and non-marriage among well-educated Japanese women explain why fertility has declined. Japanese women suffer an economic marriage “penalty” as well as a further penalty for having children—working wives as well as working mothers experience wage stagnation compared to single women. The Japanese labor market also offers few opportunities, especially for well-educated women, to re-enter the job market and resume interrupted careers. Another factor related to low marriage and birth rates is that the desire to get married is lower among both male and female non-regular workers (part-time, temporary, or contract workers) than among regular workers; economic conditions clearly matter greatly for young couples’ decision to marry and form a family. This paper elucidates how the employment conditions for working women and for young non-regular workers influence their marriage and family formation decisions, and explains why the expansion of the economic precariat in Japan’s young generation has had such a powerful impact on family formation and the low fertility rate.

Author

• Machiko Osawa, Japan Women's University