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The No Child Left Behind legislation focuses on four risk factors: socioeconomic status, eligibility for special education, minority status and English language deficiency. However, one crucial factor, early academic deficiency, has not been sufficiently stressed. This paper investigated the long-term effects of Native Hawaiian students’ grade 3 math ability on math performances at grades 5, 8 and 10 in Hawaii, using hierarchical linear modeling designs other than the conventional growth modeling. Methods to assess the unique impact due to early academic deficiency over and beyond the effects of other risk factors were demonstrated. Results have shown that math deficiency at grade 3 has a far greater impact on future math performance than all other risk factors combined.