A Coming Crisis in Teaching? Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortages in the United States

• In Event: 16.039 - Teacher Shortages, Fact or Fiction? New Perspectives on Tracking Trends in the Teacher Workforce

Abstract

This paper models teacher workforce supply and demand trends to determine whether the U.S. is currently experiencing a teacher shortage and to project the magnitude of future shortages. Despite recent news reports featuring schools across the country experiencing difficulty filling teaching positions, there has been no consensus on the existence or extent of a nationwide teacher shortage. This paper identifies the driving factors behind teacher supply and demand trends, including, on the demand side, changes in student enrollment trends, student-teacher ratios, and teacher turnover; on the supply side we examine teacher preparation enrollment trends, new entrant rates, and re-entrant rates. Finally, we identify disparate impacts of shortages on states, subject areas, and underserved students.

We examine teacher turnover using the Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) 2003-04, 2007-08, and 2011-12 and the SASS Teacher Follow-up Survey 2004-05, 2008-09, and 2013-14, nationally representative datasets that monitor teacher and school trends. Next, we use 2000 to 2025 teacher projections published in the Digest of Education Statistics to estimate workforce trends into the future. For supply, we use data on teacher preparation collected by the US Department of Education under Title II of the Higher Education Act (the most recent and complete national data on teacher preparation) and Baccalaureate and Beyond 2008:2012, a dataset that follows recent baccalaureates from 2008 until 2012, 4 years after their graduation.

To model demand, we (1) estimate the change in the number of teachers needed to educate all students between 2011-12 and 2012-13; (2) estimate the number of teachers who left the classroom between 2011-12 and 2012-13; (3) combine the change in total teachers demanded with the number of teachers who need to be replaced to calculate the demanded hires in 2012-13; then (4) repeat for years 2013 to 2024. To model supply, we take the number of completers in the U.S. and estimate an upper and lower bound of entry rate and re-entry rate to estimate total entrants. To project total supply into the future, we exponentially smooth total new-entrant estimates and then combine those estimates with re-entrant estimates.

Teacher demand is projected to increase over the next decade as the school-aged population increases by roughly 3 million students, student-teacher ratios decrease from 16-to-1 to 15-to-1, and teacher attrition rates remain steady at 8% annually. Teacher supply, meanwhile, is declining. Between 2009 and 2014, teacher preparation enrollments declined by 35%; and 23% fewer preparation candidates completed their programs. The model predicts an estimated teacher shortage of 73,000 teachers in the 2015-16 school year and an annual shortage of 120,000 teachers in 2017-18. The most disadvantaged students are baring the brunt of these shortages with significantly more underprepared teachers in high poverty high minority schools than low poverty low minority schools.

This paper adds to the literature by offering a method for estimating teacher supply and demand nationally, which is timely given current debates on the issue. Moreover, this paper highlights the adverse consequences of teacher shortages on student access to adequate and equitable education opportunities.

Authors

• Leib Sutcher, Learning Policy Institute

• Linda Darling-Hammond, Learning Policy Institute

• Desiree Carver-Thomas, Learning Policy Institute