Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

• In Event: 16.039 - Teacher Shortages, Fact or Fiction? New Perspectives on Tracking Trends in the Teacher Workforce

Abstract

The primary objective of this study was to develop 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand to inform planning for future workforce needs. These projections were estimated both in the aggregate and by a number of disaggregated categories, including teacher characteristics, geographic regions, and locales.

As a conceptual approach, the research team began by considering three components of supply and demand (teacher pipeline, teacher supply, and teacher demand) and how each contribute to an understanding of possible future shortages or surpluses. By comparing the pool of active teachers to the demand for teachers, one can assess whether there is a shortage (i.e., when demand is higher than supply) or a surplus (i.e., when supply is higher than demand).

To calculate projections of annual demand the research team considered target pupil–teacher ratios, and district student enrollment. Enrollment projections were created using grade progression ratios, a method using the proportions of students that move from one grade to the next each year (and those born five years earlier who enter kindergarten) to estimate future enrollment. A target pupil–teacher ratio for each district was set at the average of the most recent three years observed (2011–12 through 2013–14).

To create projections of supply the research team considered teacher supply to be the number of teachers who will be employed in the state over the next 10 years, assuming that trends over the past six years remain constant. Specifically, projections of total supply were estimated using a regression-based approach that modeled supply as a function of factors believed to influence supply.
Similar methods were used to create projections of demand and supply disaggregated by program area, teacher demographics, geographic region and locale including both grade progression ratios and regression-based projections.

There were a variety of data sources used in this study, including primarily the Massachusetts public reports, data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), as well as population data from the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and U.S. Census Bureau.

The research team found a slower expected rate of decline of teacher supply compared to demand indicating a future statewide surplus in the supply of teachers. The team also found projected shortages of special education and English language learner teachers, a projected shortage of minority teachers, and projected shortages in two geographic regions: the Commissioner’s Districts (i.e. large high-needs districts) and the Greater Boston region.

Gaining a clear understanding of teacher supply and demand in Massachusetts is especially important. In 2010, more of the Massachusetts teacher workforce was over the age of 49 than was the case of other employment sectors, raising concerns that these workers will retire in large numbers over the next 10 years. Moreover, despite a recent increase in the number of individuals completing teacher preparation programs in fields exhibiting shortages, there is still unmet demand in these areas. Finally, the demographics of the educator workforce do not reflect the population of students served, with minority teachers consistently underrepresented.

Authors

• Jesse D. Levin, American Institutes for Research

• Alex Berg-Jacobson, WestEd