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Purpose
One of the most substantial structural changes in U.S. higher education is the burgeoning numbers of Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSIs) nationwide (Núñez, Hurtado, & Calderón Galdeano, 2015), naturally understood to be due to rapid demographic growth. Yet, despite national trends, research shows proportional college-participation rates declined in the fastest-growing Latino areas (Authors, n.d.), raising questions about how equity losses may be masked by aggregate gains and the dichotomous HSI designation itself (Hurtado & Ruiz Alvarado, 2015). The questions guiding this study are (1) to what extent do local demographic changes explain proportional enrollment changes? and (2) what are the mediating contextual influences of that relationship, in particular those that may inform institutional planning?
Conceptual Framework
Foremost, we situate our study in the notion that equity is distinct from diversity and widening participation (Archer, 2007; Bensimon, Hao, & Bustillos, 2006), requiring a joint reconciliation of proportional institutional and demographic participation. We employ an organizational adaptation lens (Cameron, 1984) which postulates that organizations seek equilibrium with imbalanced conditions, tempered by limited resources and institutional niche indicated by resource dependency theory (Titus, 2006).
Methods
We employ an autoregressive cross-lagged model (ACLM) to calculate inter-individual change on proportional representation vis-a-vis local demographics, a technique that parcels out the effect of either measure on itself and allows to test whether the relative standing of institutions is stable despite variations in local demographic change. Subsequently, longitudinal panel analysis models intra-individual change to allow testing of mediating factors on the relationship (Curran, Obeidat, & Losardo, 2010).
Data
Based on availability, we crafted a nested data set from IPEDS and the Community Population Survey (CPS; Flores, 2010) for 412 U.S.-based public two-year colleges within 243 micro/metropolitan statistical areas, from 2005–2013. The full study will include other college sectors for comparison. The outcome is the proportion of undergraduate students identifying as Latina/o, contrasted with the proportion of college-eligible Latina/os. Mediating variables operationalize characteristics relevant to Latina/o college choice (Núñez, 2014) and variation in institutional proximity (Hillman, 2016).
Results
Despite increasing proportions of college-eligible Latina/os in the local population and student body, the effect of the former on the latter is small. A 1-point percentage change in the proportional representation of college-eligible Latina/os in the community is associated two years later with a .05 percentage point increase in Latina/o community college enrollment, after removing auto-regressive factors. This reveals that institutions have scarcely adapted to address equity gains. Growth models show that the equity growth rates depend on population density, to the detriment of fastest-growing areas. The final paper will control for additional covariates hypothesized to partially explain variation.
Significance
Though it is clear that HSIs play a significant role in the equity work of American higher education, this study shows that the designation may mask structural gains and losses that vary by geography. Findings speak to the definition of HSIs and provide alternative way of measuring the servingness of institutions, in addition to identifying location-varying factors useful for institutional adaptation and planning (Flores, Horn, & Crisp, 2006).
Deryl Keith Hatch-Tocaimaza, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Desiree Zerquera, University of San Francisco
Crystal Eufemia Garcia, Auburn University
Apri Medina, University of Nebraska-Lincoln