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Our aim is to develop a playful early childhood science education program that is theory-driven and rigorously tested. Here we present work to build and evaluate a theory of change that links intervention inputs with targets and other outcomes. Researchers worked together with teachers in focus-group workshops to identify meaningful target areas that align with teachers’ priorities for child-led science learning, and links with intervention inputs and outcomes. We evaluate the plausibility of this theory of change by reviewing research evidence and existing educational programs. Future work with a wider range of stakeholders (school heads, parents and children) will continue to address the meaningfulness, plausibility, feasibility, and testability of our theory of change for child-led early science education.