Predicting Desegregation Court-Order Release Using Racial Threat Theory

• In Event: Discipline and Desegregation in Law and Policy

Abstract

Drawing from racial threat theory, I examine whether changes in racial demographics, student segregation, and local financial resources are associated with release from court ordered desegregation plans. I estimate two sets of Cox hazard models, using White/Black dissimilarity and Black/White exposure as primary independent variables. I found that between 2000 and 2014, Southern districts were more likely to be released when Black enrollments and racial diversity and representativeness increased. School districts in Southern and non-Southern districts were more likely to be released from court order when expenditures from property taxes decreased, although overall expenditures did not have a statistically significant effect on court order release. My findings are consistent with the existence of racial threat in Southern districts.

Author

• Francisco Arturo Santelli, Vanderbilt University