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Predicting Desegregation Court-Order Release Using Racial Threat Theory

Thu, April 8, 1:00 to 2:00pm EDT (1:00 to 2:00pm EDT), Division L, Division L - Section 2 Roundtable Sessions


Drawing from racial threat theory, I examine whether changes in racial demographics, student segregation, and local financial resources are associated with release from court ordered desegregation plans. I estimate two sets of Cox hazard models, using White/Black dissimilarity and Black/White exposure as primary independent variables. I found that between 2000 and 2014, Southern districts were more likely to be released when Black enrollments and racial diversity and representativeness increased. School districts in Southern and non-Southern districts were more likely to be released from court order when expenditures from property taxes decreased, although overall expenditures did not have a statistically significant effect on court order release. My findings are consistent with the existence of racial threat in Southern districts.