It's Tough to Make Predictions: The Difference Between Teachers' Turnover Intentions and Their Actual Turnover

• In Event: Leaving or Staying in Teaching? Intentions, Ideologies, and Job Satisfaction

Abstract

Many researchers assume a strong, direct relationship between teachers’ self-reported intentions to stay and their observed retention, but this assumption has rarely been tested empirically. This study reviews 24 studies on teachers’ turnover intentions, illustrating the many ways this construct has been conceptualized and measured. It then analyzes survey data and nine-years of retention data from 620 mathematics teachers to examine the extent to which their retention intentions match their observed retention. Contrary to what is generally assumed, we find that the relationship between intended and observed retention is weak, regardless of specification or measure. We suggest that turnover intentions may still be a valuable construct, but that it may be more related to psychological commitment than actual retention.

Authors

• Ashley Anne Grant, Johns Hopkins University

• Andrew M. Brantlinger, University of Maryland