Proximal Secondary, Postsecondary, and Early Labor Market Pathways of High School Persisters and Dropouts

• In Event: The Promise of Persistence: Expanding the Evidence on High School Completion

Abstract

Objectives/purposes: Limited research is available that compares the characteristics of persisters and dropouts, largely because, until recently, the research literature has focused solely on dropouts. The current paper builds upon the extant persisters literature by taking a descriptive approach to understanding the near-term outcomes of persisters versus dropouts and the demographic and academic differences between persisters and dropouts. Our goal is to describe students whose academic pathways are not well-represented in the traditional four-year model of high school completion in order to provide practice and policy considerations to promote eventual graduation and more positive postsecondary and early labor market outcomes.

Perspective(s)/theoretical framework(s): The current study follows Rumberger (2011)’s description of educational outcomes as a process that unfolds over time. As such, we follow students for six-years after entering high school, in order to map the academic and early labor market pathways of persisting non-graduates—including persisters and returning dropouts.

Methods: The current study used data visualization (Sankey Diagraming) and descriptive statistics to illustrate the flow of students in and out of different conditions over time (e.g. enrolled in high school, working), providing an overall summary of participation in school and the early labor market, as well as academic achievements. Next, we used Chi-square and t-tests and tests to identify critical differences between persisters and dropouts and within subgroups of students who are traditionally considered to be at greater risk for poor educational outcomes.

Data sources: The current study draws on seven years of de-identified linked administrative education and labor market data collected by the Maryland Longitudinal Data System Center. The final sample included 4,560 who were (1) enrolled in a Maryland public high school as first-time ninth graders during the 2009-2010 academic year, (2) attended a Maryland High School in the 2013-14 or 2014-15 school years, and (3) had not earned a regular high school diploma by June 30, 2014.

Results: Persisters outnumbered dropouts (4:1) at the end of year 4 and reenrolled in Year 5 at five times the rate of dropouts. Students who earned a diploma or GED by the end of year 5 outperformed students with no achievement in postsecondary and early labor market participation. Persisters were more likely to have characteristics traditionally associated with increased risk of academic failure (i.e. Black, free and reduced-price meals [FRPM], Mobile), however there were no significant differences among indicators of academic preparation between persisters and dropouts.

Significance: Students belonging to subgroups often described as at-risk were more likely to persist in their fourth year compared to groups of students often described as more privileged (e.g. white students; students with more financial resources). Despite having distinct demographic profiles that would suggest increased risk of academic failure, there were no significant differences between persisters and dropouts in our measures of academic skills for math and English. This suggests the likely presence of an unmeasured, but influential, motivational driver that distinguishes persisters from dropouts.

Authors

• Mathew C Uretsky, Portland State University

• Angela K. Henneberger, University of Maryland - Baltimore