The Teacher Pipeline Under Pressure: New Evidence on Interest, Certification, Hiring, and Retention

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

The teacher workforce in the United States faces compounding challenges at every stage of the pipeline—from who expresses interest in teaching, to who clears certification requirements, to who gets hired, to who stays. This panel brings together four papers that trace these pressures using novel data and methods, offering a comprehensive view of where the pipeline is leaking.

At the earliest stage, Callen, Bartanen, and Krieg examine the recently documented decline in interest in the teaching profession using two decades of administrative data from a large regional university. Their findings suggest that the decline in early interest is tied to changing evaluations of the profession. By tracking students across time, they show when students enter and exit the pipeline during their first two years of college, pointing to policy levers that could help sustain supply.

Between interest and employment lies certification, where a growing policy tension has produced a false choice between maintaining stringent exams that restrict supply and diversity or weakening standards and risking underprepared teachers. In the next paper, Avitabile studies this in the context of Texas's Science of Reading (SOR) exam and finds the mandate reduced newly certified teachers in affected fields by 5 percent, with costs falling disproportionately on non-white candidates. He also provides evidence of a third way: state-sponsored SOR preparation programs improved pass rates on the literacy exam, suggesting states can pair new requirements with targeted support rather than choosing between quality and access.

Once candidates clear preparation and certification hurdles, they still face the hiring process itself. Using novel applicant-tracking data from over 40 school districts, Goldhaber et al. find that non-white applicants are significantly less likely to advance through early screening stages, with the largest disparities occurring before candidates have any personal contact with school-level personnel. For example, Asian candidates are roughly 14 percentage points less likely to receive an offer than similarly qualified white candidates who apply to the same job.

At the end of the pipeline, the question shifts from who enters teaching to who stays. In the final paper, Ma, Winters, and Cleveland use large language models to classify 86,727 written self-reflections submitted by beginning teachers in a statewide induction program. They find that beginning teachers who report fundamental difficulties with student engagement and classroom standards are significantly less likely to remain in their entry district and school three years later. 

Our discussants bridge research and policy perspectives. Claire Johnson Abbott, Director of the Office of Educator Effectiveness at the Massachusetts Department of Education, will offer reflections grounded in state policy. Andy Kwok of Texas A&M University, an academic researcher focused on teacher preparation and the educator pipeline, will provide commentary from the research community. The panel aims to foster a broader discussion about policy responses to building pressure across the pipeline.

Policy Area

• Education

Chair

• Andrew Mitchell Camp, Brown University

Discussants

• Claire Abbott, MA Department of Elementary & Secondary Education

• Andrew Kwok, Texas A&M University

Organizer

• Andrew Avitabile, University of Virginia

Individual Presentations

• Interest in Teaching: Motivations, Self-Perceptions, and the Decline in Interest - Presenting Author: Ian Callen, University of Virginia

• Screen or Barrier? Science of Reading Certification Exams and Teacher Supply in Texas - Presenting Author: Andrew Avitabile, University of Virginia

• Selection in Teacher Hiring Pipelines and Implications for Workforce Diversity - Non-Presenting Co-Author: Dan Goldhaber, American Institutes for Research; Presenting Author: Aaron Sojourner, W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

• Beginning Teacher Challenges and Early-Career Retention - Presenting Author: Mingyan Ma, Boston University