Return, Resume, or Remain: Migrant Decision-Making in Countries of Transit

• In Event: Measurement and Data Collection in Migration Research

Abstract

How does exposure to new information about challenging local transit country conditions affect migratory preferences and intentions? Earlier research suggests that transit migrants are attentive
to and compliant with information campaigns about destination conditions, with affirmative campaigns persuading people to pursue safer paths and deterrent campaigns promoting diversion.
However, less is understood about how migrants react to new information regarding tough local conditions in transit countries. This is important because a number of transit countries have
become prominent default destinations for temporary settlement as the United States and European Union employ more severe means of preventing entry and asylum. Often unbeknownst
to migrants, some transit countries are viable options for humanitarian migrants seeking refuge, while others expose migrants to exploitation, crime, or economic hardship. In this study, we
administer a series of survey experiments in collaboration with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) mission in Costa Rica – a relatively strong Latin American democracy and
economy, that has struggled under the pressure of increasing transit migrant arrivals since US President Donald Trump tightening border controls. Accordingly, we randomly prime a subset of
transit migrant respondents with a text outlining actual, adverse conditions in Costa Rica. Thereafter, we employ two conjoint designs to better understand the effect of this information on
migrant decision making. In one design, respondents confront a discrete choice of scenarios under which they might be more or less likely to return to their countries of origin. In the second
design, respondents confront a discrete choice of scenarios under which they might be more or less likely to attempt to enter the United States. The results reveal the downstream effects of draconian destination state policies, the associated risks to transit countries receiving unexpected influxes, and the circumstances that drive migrants to persist with their original plans, seek alternate plans, or return to the very circumstances they were once motivated to flee.

Author

• Justin Gest, George Mason University
  Presenting Author