Measuring eviction risk for HUD-subsidized households

• In Event: Housing Instability for Low-Income Renters: Evictions, Arrears, and Policy Solutions

Abstract

The federal government spends over $60 billion per year on rental assistance, through tenant-based vouchers, project-based vouchers, and public housing. While these programs have shown to have a multitude of benefits for participants, some households still struggle to make ends meet. In this paper, we link over 37 million eviction records to data on HUD program participation across the entire country to measure eviction filing rates, eviction rates, and outcomes for participants who receive eviction filings for HUD-subsidized tenants. Using two different sources of eviction data, we measure historical trends on a national scale (from 2000 through 2018), and recent trends for 10 states and 41 cities where complete data is available (from 2020 through 2024). 

To better understand the dynamics of eviction risk for subsidized households, we analyze eviction filing rates across several different dimensions of heterogeneity. First, we look across demographic characteristics and test how demographic trends vary across different types of programs, and in comparison to unassisted renters; for instance, testing if established patterns, such as the higher prevalence of eviction risk for households with children, hold for subsidized households as well. We also look at patterns of eviction risk across race/ethnicity, age, disability status, and income. Second, we leverage our large sample to look across geographies, including testing the association between rental market conditions and different state policy contexts on eviction risk for subsidized tenants. 

Finally, we examine the threat of eviction across the full timeline of program participation. Using granular administrative data, we study what share of subsidized households had an eviction filing prior to program participation, and how program participation evolves in the wake of an eviction, including if households move housing units or exit the program. We also determine if any programmatic outcomes are associated with heightened eviction risk, including higher rent-to-income ratios, over-crowding, or length of time between income re-certifications.

(Note that preliminary results can not yet be included due to the Census disclosure process, but will be disclosed by the time of the conference.)

Author

• Sarah Strochak, University of Wisconsin-Madison
  Presenting Author