Workforce Dynamics in Early Childhood: Evidence from Multi-State Administrative Data

• In Event: Licensing, Enforcement, and Administrative Burden in the Child Care Workforce

Abstract

State policy decisions can significantly shape the supply, stability, and economic well-being of the early care and education (ECE) workforce. Some policies directly target ECE teachers, such as expansions of state pre-kindergarten programs, while others—such as minimum wage increases or broader labor market policies—may indirectly affect recruitment, retention, and compensation in the sector. Understanding how these policies interact with workforce dynamics is increasingly important as states seek timely, state-specific evidence to guide decisions amid growing uncertainty around federal data access and quality. This research develops a deeper understanding of career trajectories in the ECE workforce and provides a replicable model for states to monitor their workforce using administrative data.
This study addresses three research questions. First, what are the population and earnings patterns of the ECE workforce, including active workers, new hires, leavers, and long-tenure workers? Second, what are the characteristics of new hires? Third, what are the labor market outcomes for workers who leave ECE?
The analysis uses quarterly Unemployment Insurance (UI) wage records from five primarily midwestern states. Because UI wage records are collected in every state, this approach offers a scalable framework that can be replicated nationally while also supporting in-depth analysis of state policy environments.
We construct measures of workforce stability, tenure, and retention that enable consistent comparison of earnings across workers and distinguish those who remain continuously attached to the sector from those who cycle in and out or transition to other industries. Additional analyses examine entry and exit dynamics, including the characteristics of new hires—such as prior wages, previous industries, and subsequent retention in the sector —and the outcomes of leavers, including post-exit industries, post-exit wages, and employment stability. Together, these measures provide foundational evidence for understanding workforce dynamics and inform future policy-relevant modeling.
Prior findings from our work with Illinois (Wiegand et al., 2024) demonstrate the value of describing these dynamics. This analysis found that about 1 in 5 new ECE hires had no prior reported employment in Illinois, suggesting these workers were new to the state or to the workforce. Other new hires commonly entered from food services, education, and administrative services, with prior wages similar to or below starting ECE wages. More than half of new hires exited the industry within two years, and nearly one-third of those leaving for another industry moved into education. Extending these analyses, built on a common data source, across multiple states will develop a replicable model that can be applied to other jurisdictions. Policymakers can use this information to inform and target interventions that recruit, retain, and sustain a stable early educator workforce.

Author

• Thao Tran, NORC at the University of Chicago
  Presenting Author