Poster #63 - Beyond the National Peak: Local Mitigation Gaps and Policy Pathways in China’s Agriculture

• In Event: Friday Poster Reception

Abstract

National climate targets can mask uneven local progress, raising a policy question: Does reaching an emissions peak ensure sustained mitigation? This challenge is acute in agriculture, where emissions depend on food production and regional specialization. We examine China’s agricultural emissions to assess the gap between national achievements and local mitigation outcomes and explore differentiated policy pathways.

By developing a harmonized greenhouse gas inventory for 285 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2022, we combine peak classification, sectoral contribution analysis, and scenario projections. We distinguish cities that sustain emissions reductions alongside agricultural economic growth from those where declines coincide with contraction, and identify sectoral sources of rebound.

China’s agricultural emissions peaked in 2015 but rebounded during 2020–2022, largely due to increases in livestock breeding and rice cultivation. Fewer than half of cities achieved proactive peaking, while many remained on plateau or non-declining trajectories. Scenario projections suggest that continuing current trends would amplify rebound risks, whereas cross-regional learning and coordinated improvements in key sectors could support more durable reductions.

These findings show why national peaking alone is an incomplete measure of mitigation progress. Agricultural climate governance should track the stability and economic basis of local emissions reductions and prioritize interventions tailored to regional production structures. The study highlights the potential of cross-regional learning to translate national climate ambitions into sustained local action.

Authors

• Jia Li, Tsinghua University
  Presenting Author

• Junming Zhu, Tsinghua University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author

• Xinyu (Simon) Wu, Yale University
  Non-Presenting Co-Author