Effects of Aggressive Immigration Enforcement

Session Submission Type: Panel

Abstract

Immigration enforcement under Trump 2.0 has shifted from simply controlling entry more tightly at the nation’s borders to arrests, detentions and removals of unauthorized immigrants in the interior of the U.S. Large proportions of these immigrants are long-term residents of the U.S, often with children born in the U.S. Wages paid to these immigrants has been increasing in recent years. Many reside in Democratic-leaning states in which the minimum wage is now $15 or higher. Starting pay in entry-level jobs in Republican-leaning states averages $12 per hour.  Aggressive ICE policies have made many of these workers more fearful—and more subject to employer exploitation. At the same time, large expansions of temporary work visas (H1 and H2 visas) have increased the supply of workers with lower reservation wages, especially as these programs often spend few resources on ensuring that workers are paid what they are owed. These simultaneous developments raise questions about the economic effect of aggressive enforcement policies. Do the policies simply reuce the supply of labor to employers and thereby reduce the level of economic activity? Or are they replacing an increasingly settled and higher-paid population of unauthorized immigrants with a more precarious and lower-paid immigrant populations.  The papers in this session each examine the economic effects of aggressive immigration enforcement by ICE under Trump 2.0. They use different data sets and a variety of causal identification methods. Each relies on arrest, detention and removal data provided by ICE.  One paper takes a national perspective and uses Current Population Survey data. The other two focus on cities that have experienced the most intensive ICE surges. One of these uses Homebase data, which payroll services collect from employers. The other draw on restaurant-level foot traffic, as measured by the number and duration of cell phone visits. All find negative effects on the economy.

Policy Area

• Population and Migration Issues

Chair

• Michael Reich, University of California, Berkeley

Discussant

• Hantao Wu, Princeton University

Organizer

• Michael Reich, University of California, Berkeley

Individual Presentations

• CE Arrests in Trump 2.0 and Their Impacts - Presenting Author: Chloe N East, University of Colorado - Boulder

• Effects of ICE Surges on the Restaurant Industry - Presenting Author: Michael Reich, University of California, Berkeley

• When ICE Comes to Town: The Effects of Immigration Enforcement Operations on Local Economic Activity - Presenting Author: Aaron Sojourner, W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

• Policy-Induced Migrant Busing and the Effects of Immigration on Crime - Presenting Author: Jose Bucheli, University of Texas - El Paso