Threat Perceptions and Public Support for Nuclear Proliferation: Experimental Evidence from the Middle East

• In Event: Insights from Original Survey Research in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

The dilemma of dual-use technologies is a critical topic in studies of nuclear security. This is especially true in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region that has experienced a “nuclear renaissance” since 2000 (Kamrava, 2014). Many MENA states have sought to build or acquire civilian nuclear technology. Yet, risks emerge that such civilian nuclear technology could be diverted to build a nuclear weapon, the so-called “dual-use” problem (Miller & Sagan, 2009; Jewell, 2010). Even after a state has signed the non-proliferation treaty and pledged to reserve nuclear technology for peaceful civilian use, it is conceivable that it could face national security threats that motivate the weaponization of its technology.

Different explanations predict why states choose to weaponize civilian nuclear technology, previously reserved for peaceful civilian purposes. State-centric research emphasizes incentives created by insecurity in the international system (Waltz, 1990). Other studies focus on domestic politics, showing how individual leaders earn political points by weaponizing nuclear technology (Rublee, 2006; Soligen, 2014). Little research, however, has examined the role of citizen attitudes in this process, and public opinion on decisions to weaponize nuclear technology. This is particularly understudied in the Middle East, where conducting nationally-representative polling research is challenging and rare due to restrictions imposed by this region’s authoritarian regimes. Under what conditions do citizens express support for the weaponization of nuclear technology previously reserved for peaceful civilian use? Further, how and in what ways does the cultural identity of a state posing a national security threat affect citizen support for weaponization?

To investigate this topic, this project uses a new public opinion survey technique—the population-based survey experiment—to explore citizen attitudes toward the dual-use problem of nuclear technology (Mutz, 2011). In Spring 2016, our research team completed an original, nationally-representative survey in Morocco of over 2000 respondents that tests whether a hypothetical threat from Iran, Israel, or another Arab state is more likely to raise public support for nuclear weaponization and aggressive nuclear strategies. Although Iran has become more aggressive in recent years, and pursued the development of a nuclear program, this study’s survey results indicate that Arab citizens continue to perceive Israel as the largest threat and strongest instigator of potential nuclear weaponization. Moreover, our survey’s results also show that Arab citizens disproportionately favor aggressive nuclear strategies—like using nuclear weapons or engaging in nuclear bluffing—when the hypothetical opponent is Israel compared with Iran or an Arab states. Respondents, in general, are less likely to express support for nuclear weaponization or aggressive nuclear strategies when facing hypothetical threats from Arab states or Iran. In fact, despite the fact that Iran has become more expansionist in recent years in the Middle East, deploying its soldiers to participate in conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, survey respondents are not more more likely to support aggressive nuclear strategies against this country than their fellow Arab states. Finally, one question on the survey shows that respondents believe that the international community can play a positive role in forestalling hypothetical conflicts between Morocco and Iran or another Arab state, but it would likely not effectively deter a conflict between Morocco and Israel. These findings from our survey suggest that sentiments of pan-Islamic solidarity strongly influence mass attitudes in Arab states concerning topics of threat perception and nuclear proliferation.

Authors

• Matt J. Buehler, University of Tennessee

• Curtis Bell, University of Tennessee at Knoxville