Forecasting in International Relations

• In Event: Forecasting in Comparative and International Politics

Abstract

Forecasting in International Relations

Patrick James and Randall Jones

Abstract


This paper concerns forecasting in International Relations (IR). Though it deals briefly with the place of forecasting in philosophy and related matters, the paper primarily describes the application of forecasting methods to foreign policy decision-making. In dealing with other nation-states and transnational actors, national leaders must anticipate the future, in particular the actions of important states and the consequences of their own actions. They can do so in an unsystematic and haphazard way, and deal with those consequences, or they can use recognized systematic methods of generating forecasts, as described here, which can improve the quality of their decisions.

Forecasting methods that are successfully employed in IR are able to draw on high quality, accurate information This matter quickly becomes one of government intelligence and its accuracy. High quality, accurate, trustworthy information can yield accurate forecasts and beneficial decisions by policy makers.

Forecasting methods in IR, which are described in some detail in the paper and illustrated with cases, include:

* extrapolating past trends into the future

* identifying analogies in past behavior of a state that may portend its future behavior

* use of experts who are knowledgeable of the subject being predicted

* identifying alternative scenarios of a state's possible future for the purpose of contingency planning

* simulations and games in which the outcome of role-playing games may become the actual future

* quantitative methods that use formal data processing and interpretation

* expected utility theory in which outcomes are predicted by identifying the intensity of preferences and power of key leaders. In the paper this method is covered in considerable depth because of its remarkably accurate forecasting record.

Authors

• Patrick James, University of Southern California

• Randall J. Jones, University of Central Oklahoma