Terrorism vs. Economic Policy in Nigeria's 2015 Presidential Campaigns

• In Event: New Explorations of Violence in Africa

Abstract

How do different types of political issues shape electoral competition in African countries? This paper examines the 2015 defeat of Nigeria’s ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) by a new political party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which was less than two years old. Existing research lists corruption, economic decline, improved electoral management, and above all, a significant rise in terrorism as explanations for the defeat of the PDP, which dominated politics at all levels of government since a 1999 regime transition. Concern about terrorism (as distinct from other forms of instability), arguably distinguished 2015 from all previous elections since independence in 1960. Public opinion polls identified it as voters’ top concern, which seems unsurprising given the rise of suicide bombings and kidnappings attributed to Boko Haram.

However, a content analysis of one thousand pages of campaign rhetoric by the top politicians from each party indicates that insecurity and terrorism played a smaller role in the 2015 presidential election than previously appreciated. Instead, APC politicians overwhelmingly focused on economic issues, with 284 references during the peak campaign period between August 2014 and March 2015 compared to 72 references by the PDP. Economic policy appeals are then compared to election reform, corruption, women’s rights and other issues raised by the two major parties during the campaign. This study contributes to a growing body of research that questions portraits of African elections as centered on ethnicity or parochialism and devoid of issue-based campaigning. Nigerians engaged in “economic voting,” assessing their pocketbooks alongside broader economic policy performance at the polls. Further, by identifying the particular issues that shaped the APC’s successful campaign, the paper also develops a new argument for opposition party cohesion, highlighting how the APC managed to stay together where previous attempts at opposition unity had failed. Finally, the paper complements a separate analysis in a larger project which offers statistical evidence that citizens voted on economic issues rather than experience with terrorist violence. This offers evidence that voting behavior aligned with campaign appeals.

Author

• Carl LeVan, American University