Candidate Turnover as a Measure of Party Change

• In Event: Development and Change in Comparative Parties

Abstract

We propose candidate turnover as a new measure of party change. Political parties can evolve or stagnate, but the concept of party change has so far been elusive and standardised approaches to its measurement remain wanting. Candidate turnover provides a straightforward numerical index that – provided a proper method of weighting – offers a reliable measure of party change. Furthermore, it can relatively easily be extended to historical cases where lists of candidates (but less additional information about internal life of political parties) are available. More broadly, our work suggests a novel perspective on political parties, conceiving them as the DNA of political parties.

Empirically, we analyse the levels of candidate turnover in nearly 1,000 parties contesting more than 60 elections in nine Central and East European (CEE) democracies. CEE is a particularly suitable testing ground for the new measure as many parties in the region have experienced high levels and various forms of party change while others have been remarkably stable.

Candidate novelty (i.e. the weighted share of candidates that did not contest the previous election) helps to identify new political parties but the degree of candidate turnover can also help to measure levels of internal change among existing political parties. This paper test the reliability of the measure by analysing the relationship between candidate turnover and other aspects of party change such as: (a) programmatic changes; (b) splinters, mergers and electoral coalitions; (c) leadership changes; and (d) changes of party names. We hypothesise that candidate change is related to other aspects of party change, but more substantive and permanent changes (e.g. splits and mergers or substantial programmatic changes) are associated with higher candidate turnover compared to more temporary or tactical changes (e.g. electoral coalitions). Finally, we use our expertise on individual CEE parties to discuss anomalous cases where candidate turnover poorly corresponds to other measures of party change.

Authors

• Allan Sikk, University College London

• Philipp Koeker, Canterbury Christ Church University