Information and Polarization in the 2016 Colombian Peace Agreement

• In Event: Individual Attitudes in Conflict Processes

Abstract

The narrow defeat of the 2016 proposed peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC exposed the strong political polarization in Colombia, where individuals display strongly divergent views on the acceptable terms of a peace agreement as well as different perceptions of likely consequences. We examine how individuals respond to information in an environment of political polarization. In a non-polarized environment, we would expect that individuals to converge and respond in similar ways to factual information, whereas responses by individuals in a polarized context will differ depending on their initial position. We conduct a survey experiment where we examine how support for the peace process varies by issues such implementation, the economic cost/benefits of peace, and the cost in terms of justice and impunity and we manipulate the informational context prior to the questions. In line with the political polarization hypothesis we find some evidence suggesting discrimination in the gathering and assessment of information and that people perceive potential trade-offs differently. More specifically, we find that supporters of the president who receive information about reduced jail sentences for former FARC members are more likely to support the peace agreement compared to supporters of the runner-up candidate receiving the same information.

Authors

• Monica Pachon, Universidad del Rosario

• Cesar Mantilla, Intitute for Advanced Study in Toulouse

• Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, University of Essex