A Long-Range State-Level Presidential Election Forecast in 2016.

• In Event: Political Forecasting at the Cutting Edge

Abstract

This paper provides an update of the long range state-level presidential election forecast that I first presented in October 2015 at the Iowa Conference on Presidential Politics. This model correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory a year in advance of the 2016 election. In this paper, I examine the overall performance of the model in 2016 election, and provide a conditional forecast for 2020.

Author

• Jay A. DeSart, Utah Valley University