Repression and the Realignment of Rebel Movements

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security III & Migration and Citizenship
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: International Security III

Abstract

Why do rebels coalesce into a single group in some conflicts, while fragmenting into multiple factions in others? In this paper I explore two processes that shape the coherence of a rebel movement - the the formation of alliances between previously independent groups, and the fragmentation of previously unified groups into multiple factions. I argue that rebel alignments reflect the bases upon which dissidents are mobilized, such as ideology or identity. Government repression should often disrupt these bases, however, by inducing individuals to orient more strongly toward subnational identities. This is so because repression is often targeted disproportionately at particular ethnic or religious groups, increasing the salience of such identities, and because rebels will place an increased emphasis on defending members of their own group. Thus, repression should increase the probability that diverse rebel groups will fragment along ethnic lines, while also increasing the probability of alliances among co-ethnic rebel groups. I test these hypotheses on a sample of all civil wars worldwide, 1946-2017, finding support for my expectations that repression increases the probability of both fragmentation and alliance formation. Further support for the theory comes from the fact that these newly formed groups are disproportionately likely to be ethnically homogeneous. The results suggest that these processes are linked more closely than most previous work has recognized, and that government behavior can have a surprisingly large effect on rebel movement structure.

Author

• David Bowden, University of Pennsylvania