Populism & Soft Power: Russia, US, & the Rise of Conservative Values in Eurasia

• In Event: The Intersection of Great Powers and Local Populism in Eurasia

Abstract

Our paper explores the interaction between the rise of populism in national contexts and the way its reshapes the soft power equilibrium on the international scene. Since several years, public opinion surveys, as well as media and civil society institutions have been recording a rise in “conservative values” in Central Asia, mostly in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The set of so-called “conservative values” is quite large: retraditionalization of gender roles, mass opposition to homosexual rights, rise of ethnonationalism and tensions with ethnic minorities, claims for more respect of religious practices and beliefs, calls for a specific national path of development, etc. A generations of young politicians has emerged in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to take advantage of this new populist atmosphere and capitalize on it. External actors influential in the region, too, have to adapt to this new norm, favorable to some, unfavorable to others. By combining Gallup, Pew surveys, as well as several local surveys and focus groups, we look at the way Russia has been able to strengthen its “dialogue” with Central Asian societies through these shared conservative values, while the US and Europe have been the main losers of it. This articulation between domestic and international contexts allow us to challenge the simplistic notion of Russia’s “influence” in the region by showing that it does not shape Central Asian opinions but amplify already existing and homegrown trends.

Authors

• Dylan Royce, The George Washington University

• Marlene Laruelle, George Washington University