Guns, Slogans and Violent Escalation

• In Event: Terrorist Group Decision-Making: Trends in Tactics, Rhetoric and Exit

Abstract

Online violent propaganda has received a lot of attention in recent years. But is violent rhetoric always a prequel to behavioral escalation? This paper adopts a mixed method approach to examine the link between violent rhetoric and violent behavior, and it investigates what determines whether groups decide to publicly call for violence against civilians.
Whereas violent rhetoric can be used to propagate the cause and recruit, it can also attract the attention of security forces and undermine a group. Therefore, we might expect that past periods of repression would lead to reduced tendency to publicly call for violence against civilians. However, an investigation of ethno-political organizations from the MAROB database reveals that past repression increases the likelihood of violent rhetoric. The analysis also suggests that rather than violent rhetoric preceding violent behavior, calls for violence against civilians tend to emerge after periods of intensifying conflict or intra-organizational fragmentation. To better understand these dynamics, the paper employs a case study that unpacks the causal mechanisms of rhetorical and behavioral escalation. Relying on a variety of primary and secondary sources, the paper process-traces al-Gama’a al-Islamiyaa’s militarization to show how the explicit call for attacks against tourists came in the context of an escalating cycle of tensions with the state.

Author

• Ioana Emy Matesan, Wesleyan University