Power Rivalry and Public Support for Globalization

• In Event: The Mircrofoundations of the US-China Trade War

Abstract

The current anti-globalization backlash in the western world has largely been attributed to economic distress or anxiety about immigrants in certain communities. We demonstrate that perceived strategic competition between rival powers offers an additional explanation for the American public’s dwindling support for globalization. While a global hegemon can provide the stability for sustaining openness, power rivalry increases the uncertainty and cost of trade, thereby increasing the perceived need for self-reliance and reducing support for trading with the world. In addition, concern about one’s relative capability vis-à-vis the rival in the event of conflict trumps foregone economic and security benefits of trading with the rival. We test our predictions using a priming experiment, where respondents are asked to rate their support for trading with the world, allies, and rivals, with and without a preface that reminds them of the strategic competition facing the United States. While Democrats embrace globalization much more than Republicans at the baseline, they significantly reduce support for global trade when primed to think about rivalry, suggesting partisan convergence towards an anti-globalization position. Our study highlights an additional mechanism at work in the backlash and calls into question the sustainability of liberal peace under power rivalry.

Authors

• Weiyi Shi, University of California, San Diego

• Lauren Prather, University of California, San Diego