Political Rhetoric and Public Beliefs about Voter Fraud

• In Event: Evidence about Voter Suppression, Voter Fraud, and Administrative Discretion

Abstract

Public concerns about voter fraud are widespread and are frequently cited to justify new voting restrictions and harsh punishment for violators. But, to what extent do beliefs about a perpetrator’s identity shape public support for efforts to prevent and punish voter fraud? Few studies examine the images or examples people have in mind when they think about voter fraud. We report results of a national survey with a conjoint analysis, an experimental design that asks respondents to decide whether a person is more likely to cast an illegal ballot, after being given traits describing the person. Some of the traits provide implicit cues about the person’s racial or ethnic identity. We find that Americans perceive typical illegal voters as immigrants, people with a criminal record, and members of the opposite political party. A second measure finds that Americans tend to overestimates the share of illegal voters who are immigrants or people of color. Among white respondents, images of illegal voters are linked to beliefs about the frequency with which voter fraud occurs, and support for controversial voter identification policies.

Authors

• David C. Kimball, University of Missouri, St. Louis

• Adriano Udani, University of Missouri, St. Louis