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A Long-Range State-Level Presidential Election Forecast in 2016.

Thu, August 29, 10:00 to 11:30am, Hilton, Oak Lawn


This paper provides an update of the long range state-level presidential election forecast that I first presented in October 2015 at the Iowa Conference on Presidential Politics. This model correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory a year in advance of the 2016 election. In this paper, I examine the overall performance of the model in 2016 election, and provide a conditional forecast for 2020.