Threat as Policy Feedback Trigger: Explaining New Support for Affordable Care Act

• In Event: Policy Feedback and Public Opinion

Abstract

A growing body of research documents the impact of policy feedback in producing changes in public attitudes and political participation over time. Less well understood is the mechanism or trigger that produces sharp, rapid change from public ambivalence and indifference to support and political engagement in response to a new or emerging government program. “Threat” is one potential trigger, according to Andrea Campbell (2003, Ch.5): the arrival of a new political context that jeopardizes the continuation of an emerging program can activate loss aversion and increase the benefits of collective action to retain the program. The threat trigger is a potential explanation for the sharp change in public assessement of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) from indifference and ambivalence to engaged, majority support after Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans repeatedly voted to repeal it. We investigate the potential impact of threatened repeal on the ACA’s newfound support by using a unique panel study that began with the passage of the law in 2010 and continued in four subsequent waves - 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018.

Authors

• Lawrence R. Jacobs, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities

• Suzanne Mettler, Cornell University

• Ling Zhu, University of Houston