Mass Shootings and Voter Turnout

• In Event: Voter Turnout

Abstract

When and in what way do mass shootings affect political behavior? Some studies argue that mass shootings do not lead to a change in public support for gun control whereas other research finds that residing near a mass shooting increases support for gun control. While diverse findings about public opinion on gun policy have been accumulated, little or no research has tested the impact of mass shootings on voter turnout. As people tend not to change their gun policy preferences even after mass shootings, will there be no association between mass shootings and voter turnout? Does proximity to a mass shooting site condition the relationship between the two? To answer these important questions, this paper examines whether an increase in public attention to mass shootings increases voter turnout. To measure public attention to mass shootings across the United States, we use time series cross section data of Designated Market Area (DMA)-level Google searches. We estimate the relationship between Google searches occurred after major shooting incidents with ten or more fatalities, 2012-18 and DMA-level voter turnout for each of the 2012-18 elections, controlling for Google searches for other major issues such as immigration and health care, local economic conditions, and several characteristics of the electoral context. For the 2018 election, we also estimate the influence of the March for Our Lives movement in a way that investigates if that unprecedented nationwide movement made the 2018 election different from the previous elections.

Author

• Taeyong Park, Carnegie Mellon University in Qatar