Strategic Nature of Rebel Group Ideology

• In Event: Ideology and Support for Violence

Abstract

How does presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups’ ideological positioning and strategic goals during civil war? Although violent forms of inter-group conflict have been widely studied in the civil war literature, there has been little academic analysis on ideological and messaging conflicts between rival groups. Multi-actor civil wars present unique challenges to rebel groups as they compete over limited economic, political, and military resources (Bloom, 2004; Kydd and Walter, 2002). These challenges shape groups’ choices and alter their incentives in regards to groups’ ideological positioning and set goals. We argue that the pressure of competition forces rebel groups to differentiate themselves ideologically from their rivals to maximize their chances of survival and success. Rebel groups strive to set themselves apart by offering unique ideological products to their supporters and recruits. Thus, we contend that rebel groups are more likely to modify their ideologies and demands from the government in the face of competition from rival groups. We test this theory using novel data collected from rebel group manifestoes and public statements distributed between 1950 and 2015. Findings from 363 rebel groups suggest that groups are more likely to shift their ideology and modify their demands from the government as a) the number of rival groups increase and b) they enter negotiations with the government during a multi-actor civil war. Our study is one of the first in the literature to suggest that rebel groups’ ideologies and demands are not set and that they are prone to strategic shifts in the face of competition.

Authors

• Sema Hande Ogutcu-Fu, Lincoln University

• Seden Akcinaroglu, Binghamton University

• Efe Tokdemir, Bilkent University

• Carlos Enrique Moreno Leon, Universidad Icesi

• Jeremy Matthew Berkowitz, Binghamton University

• Evgeny Sedashov, SUNY at Binghamton