Urban Growth and the Geography of Civil Conflict

• In Event: Civil War Dynamics

Abstract

The world's population is becoming increasingly urban, giving cities a more prominent role in political events, including armed conflict. Urban growth makes cities more politically important, but may strain the state's capacity to administer urban areas. While most studies of intrastate conflict focus on national-level conflict trends or on violence near capital cities, there is still much to learn about how demographic changes of a population may lead to geographic changes in conflict events. Consideration of sub-national data is therefore crucial to our understanding of how urbanization and urban growth impact conflict trends in urbanizing countries. In this study, I use geocoded data on civil conflict events to analyze changes in sub-national levels of conflict during periods of urban growth. I theorize two basic geographic changes in conflict behavior in increasingly urban countries. First, that as cities grow, rebel groups shift the focus of their attacks toward urban targets. Second, that given increases in state capacity, rebel attacks in urban areas may decrease over time, even as populations shift toward cities. I find empirical support for both hypotheses and provide commentary about their implications for national security policy in urbanizing countries.

Author

• Matthew Cobb, University of Arizona