Challenging the Status Quo: Coups and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes

• In Event: Regime Change in the Shadow of Coups

Abstract

There is a lot of divergence in the literature regarding the prospects of democratization in the wake of coups. The coup optimistic side argues that coups are a means of forcing out entrenched dictators and political liberalization can be emboldened. The coup pessimistic side contends that coups are only a re-shuffling of power between autocrats, and they simply facilitate the change of an autocrat with another. Building off the democratic transition literature, we argue that the outcome will depend on the pacts made during and prior to the coup being carried out. Coups are not simple processes and not all coups are equivalent. Some will involve coalitions between civilians and military actors, others are affairs carried out purely by military or security forces. If the choice to democratize depends expectations regarding payoffs in the post coup environment, then the types actors involved will change incentives to democratize or hold onto power. We hypothesize that civilian involvement in coups will lead to higher probability of democratic transition as the military will have allies in a democratic system improving its prospects. In contrast, coups that carried out solely by the military are less likely to result in democracy. We test this argument using original data collected on coup processes.

Authors

• Jesse Dillon-Savage, Trinity College Dublin

• Roman-Gabriel Olar, Trinity College, Dublin