Deep Roots of Modern Violence: Pre-Colonial States and Separatist Civil Wars

• In Event: Time in a Bottle: Analyzing Historical Conflict Data

Abstract

What causes separatist civil wars? This paper argues that ethnic groups organized as historical states caused other groups in their post-colonial country to fight to secede through two channels. First, ethnic groups organized as a pre-colonial state (PCS) tended to establish ethnically exclusive regimes. Second, PCS groups tended to be large enough to deter civil wars at the center—hence causing other groups to fight separatist civil wars to alleviate their grievances. Regression evidence using a newly compiled dataset on pre-colonial states provides demonstrates a robust positive relationship between historical statehood and separatist civil wars. Mechanism tests show historical states: (1) are also correlated with center-seeking civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa, where dominant ethnic groups tend to be minorities, and (2) only trigger separatism in countries with bad “ethnic geography.” Pre-colonial statehood also helps to explain differential rates of ethnic civil wars across world regions.

Author

• Jack Paine, University of Rochester