Cyber Attacks, Covert Action, and Revelation

• In Event: OK Computer: Conflict Processes in the Information Age

Abstract

As states become increasingly reliant on technology, the effectiveness of covert cyber attacks has correspondingly increased. One would, therefore, expect states to take such actions more often. However, the world has not yet experienced a ``Pearl Harbor'' moment for cyber attacks, after which they become commonplace. Why not? To answer this question, we develop a model of covert cyber attacks, revelation, and uncertainty over resolve. Increasing the effectiveness of cyber attacks incentivizes the target to publicly reveal the action, hoping that the instigator will stop to save face. Anticipating this, less resolved types choose not to commit an attack in the first place. Our results contrast to the existing conventional wisdom that see the current tranquil cyber environment as unsustainable. Rather, fewer attacks may be a natural product of those attacks being more effective.

Authors

• William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh

• Jacob Otto, University of Pittsburgh