Modeling the Repression-Dissent Dynamic: A Network Approach

• In Event: New Research on Resistance and Repression

Abstract

Modeling the repression-dissent nexus has long been an empirical challenge. For one thing, such paired actions are endogenously determined as parts of an ongoing strategic interaction. For another, both repression and dissent comprise a wide variety of tactics only imperfectly captured in standard violent-nonviolent empirical dichotomies. To address the challenge, I propose a novel approach built on network analysis to study the repression-dissent dynamic. First, I develop a network of interdependent tactics and strategies focused on actions, rather than actors. I can thus map out tactic-to-tactic interactions in resistance movements and explore clusters of strategy substitutions between the state and dissidents. Second, I show that analyzing the menu of repertoires and simultaneous repression and dissent in a network framework significantly improves our ability to forecast different types of state repression. Lastly, I show that applying this network approach helps explain the important conflict escalatory patterns and mutual spiral in anti-government protests.

Author

• Howard Liu, Duke University