What’s the Matter with Trump? Personal Character and Presidential Performance

• In Event: Assessing the Presidency of Donald Trump

Abstract

Donald Trump feels underappreciated. His low polls and highly critical elite press coverage convince him that he does not get the respect he deserves. As partial compensation, he schedules booster rallies to showcase the enthusiasm of his base for the TV cameras and to bolster his own spirits. He tells his crowds that he has performed well as president: making America great again by passing a large tax cut that stimulated the economy and by asserting America’s independence on the world stage. He does not mention his curious relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Trump’s character was analyzed by some 36 psychiatrists and psychologists in a collection of diagnostic essays written before his election and published shortly thereafter (Lee, 2017). The consensus was that for reasons stemming from his personal character, he would be a “dangerous” choice for president. Departing from these observations, my paper will address the following questions. First, what does president Trump’s personal behavior and job performance as president imply about his current psychological state? Second, what small subset of the many diagnoses of Mr. Trump’s character--in the Lee edited volume and (less formally) in occasional elite news media treatments (e.g., The Cult of Trump, June 8, 2018)--seems particularly insightful and why? Finally, how does the estimated predictive potential of available Trump-character assessments stack up against that shown by past political science efforts to forecast general presidential performance (e.g., Barber, 1992; George, 1980)?

Author

• Bruce Buchanan, University of Texas, Austin