Alliances, Civil War, and International Militarized Disputes

• In Event: Alliances and War

Abstract

What is the link between civil war and international conflict? How do alliances affect this relationship? Existing research has shown there is a clear link between civil conflict and the initiation of wars or militarized interstate disputes. However, no study has directly compared the similarities and differences in the relationship between civil war and interstate conflict for allied and non-allied states. In this paper, I show that civil wars make the initiation of militarized interstate disputes more likely between allied states than between non-allied states, a theoretically counterintuitive finding. I argue that this happens because common alliance ties can create perverse incentives for states to intervene in their allies affairs during internal political instability, such as civil war. I use a directed-dyad research design that analyzes civil war and militarized interstate dispute data from 1816 until 2010. I find that civil wars in either the initiator or the target state make initiation of militarized disputes more likely for allied than non-allied dyads. In addition, surprisingly, alliances with specific promises to renounce the use of force make conflict more likely between allied states during civil war. As most wars are internal in nature and alliances remain the key element of state's security policies, the research incorporating alliances and civil and interstate conflict remains increasingly relevant, from both theoretical and policy perspective.

Author

• Vanes Ibric, The George Washington University