Climate Shocks and Perceptions of Violence: Evidence from North-Central Nigeria

• In Event: Armed Conflict in Africa

Abstract

Climate change, technological shifts, population growth, and soil degradation are transforming social relations across Africa. The pressures induced by these transformations have, in many instances, led to increased violence and conflict. Yet, the outbreak of conflict is not ubiquitous. Some communities adapt to these shifts – such as a decrease in land or new movements of people – and manage rising tensions between opposite groups. In other communities, these pressures have led to a severe increase in tension and escalations of violence. In this paper, I provide evidence on the local effects of environmental pressures in North-Central Nigeria. I combine data on near term climate shocks – measured as a recent reduction in arable land and an increase in new population of peoples – with original survey data from three states on perceptions of violence and inter-group tolerance. I find that perceptions of violence are higher and tolerance is lower in areas which have suffered a near-term climate shock. Qualitative interviews and focus group discussions offer suggestive evidence that this is due to a breakdown of previous informal agreements over the use of scarce resources. In addition, communities with more proactive and engaged local leaders are less likely to witness escalations of violence.

Author

• Catlan Erin Reardon, University of California, Berkeley