The Relationship between Conflict and Interdependence: New Evidence

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

A long-standing, unsettled question in international relations has been whether interdependence and conflict are related positively or negatively. In order to offer fresh approaches to answering this question, this panel includes research that explores different aspects of the nexus between international trade and conflict. Destabilization in inter-state relations can arise due to either trade or conflict. Cheng and Minhas test the relationship between conflict and trade using multilinear tensor regression analysis in order to account for endogeneity. The authors find that trade asymmetries are associated with a higher likelihood of material and verbal conflict and vice versa. Leonard expands on traditional theories to explore how technological advances that improve trade efficiency can impact conflict. The introduction of shipping containers provides a way to test whether this exogenous technological shock affects inter-state conflict. The author posits that new technology for trade increases the likelihood of conflict within dyads due to uncertainty about the other side’s relative gains. However, process tracing methods for the rival dyads of Colombia-Venezuela and China-Japan reveal the pacifying power of domestic business’ influence on foreign policy. Kellogg argues that the peace-inducing effect of interdependence on conflict can be traced to the involvement of domestic businesses in national security decision-making. Shifting the focus from inter-state conflict to intra-state conflict, Prasad asserts that insurgencies negatively impact the depth of international economic integration. Using cross-national data on economic integration depth and a detailed case study of India, the author shows how the presence of insurgencies results in shallow trade agreements. Given the rising instability in inter-state trade relations around the world, the papers on this panel provide novel perspectives on the future of interdependence and conflict.

Sub Unit

• Division 17: International Collaboration

Individual Presentations

• Parsing Codependence in Trade and Conflict - Shahryar Minhas, Michigan State University; Cindy Cheng, Technical University of Munich

• Containing Conflict? The Effect of the Intermodal Transport Revolution - Hans Leonard, University of Rochester

• How Business & Economic Interdependence Reduces Military Conflict between Rivals - Anita R Kellogg, University of California, Los Angeles

• State (In)security: The Impact of Insurgencies on Economic Integration - Shubha Kamala Prasad, Georgetown University

Chair

• Terrence Chapman University of Texas, Austin

Discussant

• Tyler Pratt Yale University